In the first chapter of Super Boom Hirsch predicts that: "We expect the Dow to push into the 13,000 to 14,000 range in the first six months of 2011 before it buckles....into another bear market." Later on in the book he focuses on the dire prognostications of two current bears, Robert Prechter and Harry Dent, and, gives his own assessment as to where the market will drop: "I believe that the 2009 intraday low of 6,470 or thereabout will hold...".
In going back to Prechter and Dent, the author writes: "A drop in the Dow from the recent high of about 11,500 to Dent's 3,800 or Prechter's 1,000 would equate to catastrophic losses of 67 percent and 91 percent, respectively.". Hirsch doesn't foresee losses of biblical proportions like the other two clairvoyants, but concurs with, "...the general concept of restrained economic growth and a lid on stock prices for the next several years.". All three think the market is like a bomb that's ready to blow and equity prices will snowball to new lows in the not too distant future.
So when does Mr. Hirsch think this ascent to 38,820 will commence?: "The next super boom will begin around 2017...". That's six years from now and if his double dip scenario pans out according to his timetable of the second half of 2011, investors with a long-term horizon will suffer a lot of pain, torture and agony in their portfolios. So much for reading a book that isn't all doom and gloom.
The author gives some telltale signs of when this market levitation will explode: when the P/E Ratio of the Dow hits single digits, when housing recovers and when Consumer Confidence reaches 90. He also goes on to say: "...the calculus for a super boom forecast: the combination of peacetime, supportive government policies, ubiquitous technology, and inflation.".
What I have just written about is basically the essence of Super Boom, another market crash, then a significant rebound. Hirsch could have said it all in a 50 page pamphlet or e-book, but instead, he includes about 125 pages of fluff which is why I can not recommend investors buying this book. Half the publication is an homage to his father Yale Hirsch who founded The Stock Trader's Almanac and made a couple of prescient calls like the market bottom in 1974.
Too much of Super Boom is filler, like reprints of some of Hirsch the elder's old newsletters from the 1970's. There is also a chapter dedicated to critiquing James Glassman and Kevin Hassett's Dow 36,000 published in 1999. You get some inflation history of the 20th Century, too, but it's been done too many times before. It's like you give a guy a hammer and all of the sudden everything needs hammering.
What I couldn't understand is how a guy that puts out an all-star manual like The Stock Trader's Almanac comes up with a dubious product like Super Boom. It's beyond comprehension. However, as far as his market predictions are concerned, I believe Hirsch is right that we will see a consolidation, if not a crash in the markets, and then we will experience a significant rebound afterwards. I know it's his first book, so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt in his next effort, but I don't like to mince words, so do yourself a favor and take a pass on this one.